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THE GAP LEFT BY IMMIGRANTS IN THE AMERICAN ECONOMY

Gabriella Schimpl Tebar Anunciação / Beatriz Machado Nuñez | 14/06/2026 23:39 | iNFORMS
IMG Francisco Diez from New York City, USA

With the increase in Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) operations in various regions of the United States since the beginning of Donald Trump's second term, thousands of immigrants have come to live under the constant threat of detention and deportation.


In sectors that heavily depend on immigrant labor, such as agriculture, construction, and manufacturing, the intensification of inspections has led to a contraction in labor activity. These workers occupied positions often characterized by long hours, intense physical effort, and functions avoided by a large part of the native workforce. To fill essential roles in strategic sectors of the economy, the impacts of ICE operations went beyond the workers directly apprehended and affected the productive activities that depended on their labor. Those already in the country began to avoid travel and activities that could increase their exposure to immigration authorities, deepening their vulnerability.


According to a study published by the National Bureau of EconomicResearch, which investigates the impacts of increased immigration enforcement on the United States labor market during Donald Trump's second term, the regions with the greatest repression recorded a drop in employment among likely undocumented immigrants who remained in the country. The research predicts a drop of about 5% in employment among men without regular documentation, in addition to a reduction in working hours. This indicates that the departure of these workers was not compensated for the immediate hiring of other workers. Therefore, companies began to face difficulties in filling vacancies and maintaining the pace of their activities. In sectors that heavily depend on this type of labor, the reduction in the number of workers meant less production and greater difficulties in meeting demand.


The contraction of labor activities is also a consequence of the gap left by immigrant workers detained by ICE, since American workers of the same age and level of education do not want to occupy the positions previously held by immigrants, despite the discourse propagated by the Trump administration and nationalists that immigrants "stole" opportunities intended for Americans. However, the study shows that the consequences of the anti-immigrant actions that the American government has been practicing are different: the labor market has not improved for natives. To date, it is not possible to say that the labor market has worsened for natives after ICE's raids against immigrants, but hypotheses range from a lack of interest on the part of Americans in occupying the positions taken, many of which are heavy labor positions in industries, production and agriculture, but also because they do not have the same qualifications for the positions.


It is evident that the discrepancy between the political discourse on immigrant labor and the study's results is clear. The study shows that immigrants perform essential, sometimes irreplaceable, functions in strategic sectors of the American economy, and that their withdrawal from the labor market has revealed how a migrant workforce maintained American economic power. Thus, the dependence of productive sectors on immigrant labor demonstrates how the nationalist narrative of hard work propagated by the Trump administration is, yet another farce constructed from the invisible labor of immigrants.

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